Hump Day Fare Hacks: September 21, 2016

This week featured the unearthing of some new deals, the increasing of fares on other routes, and a number of notable events in between.

For starters, I was convinced that the Norwegian Index would increase dramatically, as we had to say goodbye to the BOS-OSL route (which, by the way, is still in the low-$300 range for October). However, while both of the routes that were previously listed at under $300 increased in price, the two that were listed at over $300 both decreased in price, resulting in a less dramatic change than I’d anticipated. As a result, we might even see routes such as BOS-CPH and – much more likely – BOS-LGW creep under the $300 mark.

Norwegian Index for September 7, 2016 (measured in dollars): 295.0.

Going back to that last sentence: why is BOS-LGW (at $318) more likely to break the $300 price floor than BOS-CPH, which is listed at $304? Well, BOS-CPH goes out of season at the end of October, and we’re getting close to the final dates. As you may know, the general rule in the airline world is that – all other things equal – the closer it is to the date of departure, the more the price increases. Now, of course, there are times when you’ll find a crazy low fare on a flight departing the following week that should be really expensive, but those are anomalies, and usually have to do with a special promotion, or the fact that the airline is desperate to sell seats. So even though BOS-CPH is significantly closer to $300 than BOS-LGW, it doesn’t have time on its side, whereas BOS-LGW will run throughout the winter.

Note: All routes profiled are based on a 7-day round trip (departing and arriving the same day a week apart), unless otherwise noted. That said, I strongly encourage you to play with a variety of dates and trip lengths and see what you can find.

 

BOSTON

 

Boston – Beijing

Leave on:

  • September 27

Carrier: Hainan Airlines
Price: $638

Thoughts: So what if it’s short notice? YOLO.

 

Boston – Copenhagen

Leave on:

  • October 11, 18 (return October 20, 27)

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $304

Thoughts: The route goes out of season at the end of October, but I’d say it’s still possible that this goes through the $300 price floor.

 

Boston – Frankfurt

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 11, 13-16, 18, 20-23, 25, 27-30
  • February (2017) 1, 3-6, 8, 10-13, 15-28
  • March (2017) 1-9, 11-23, 27-31

Carrier: Lufthansa
Price: $507

Thoughts: I know it’s the same price as last week, but trust me – this will not last.

 

Boston – Lisbon

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 9, 11-13, 15, 16, 18-20, 22, 23, 25-27, 29, 30
  • February (2017) 1-3, 5, 6, 8-10, 12, 13, 15, 20, 22-24, 26, 27
  • March (2017) 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 12, 13, 15-17, 19, 20, 22-24, 26-29

Carrier: TAP Portugal
Price: $580

Thoughts: I believe this is the lowest this fare has gone. For a winter getaway in Portugal, this is well worth the money.

 

Boston – London Gatwick

Leave on:

  • October 26
  • November 13, 14, 27, 29
  • December 1-5, 7
  • January (2016) 16
  • February (2017) 21, 27, 28

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $318

Thoughts: Dare I say that this route goes under $300? I know it seems implausible, but I’ve learned that the only thing to expect with Norwegian is the unexpected.

 

 

 

NEW YORK

 

New York JFK and Newark – Amsterdam

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 11-31
  • Any date in February
  • Any date in March

Carriers: Delta Air Lines (JFK), KLM (JFK), United Airlines (EWR)
Price: $439

Thoughts: So all of the December dates that were available have gone, leaving only 2017 dates available. Doesn’t change the fact that this is a steal.

 

New York JFK – Brussels

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 12-17, 19-24, 26-31
  • February (2017) 1-6, 8-28
  • March (2017) 1-23, 26, 28-31

Carriers: Brussels Airlines
Price: $443

Thoughts: The only Belgian thing I can think of that’s better than this deal is a stack of Belgian waffles. I’m sure there are others, of course, but this is definitely up there.

 

New York JFK – Dublin

Leave on:

  • November 15, 22, 30
  • December 1, 6-8, 12
  • January (2017) 9-12, 16-19, 23-26, 30, 31
  • February (2017) 1-3, 6-9, 13-16, 20, 22, 23, 26-28
  • March (2017) 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 12-14

Carriers: Aer Lingus
Price: $497

Thoughts: Of all the legacy transatlantic carriers that fly between the U.S. and Europe, Aer Lingus is usually the cheapest. However, a flight to Dublin – not Shannon, Dublin – priced at less than $500 is exceptional.

 

New York JFK – Oslo

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 19, 22, 24, 27, 31
  • February (2017) 2, 5, 7

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $280

Thoughts: This fare has hovered around the high-$200 mark, but I anticipate that it might plunge below $260 if capacity isn’t filled. I’m not saying “wait,” but waiting wouldn’t be bad, either.

 

New York JFK – Stockholm

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 18, 20, 21, 23, 25, 27, 28
  • February (2017) 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 22

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $278

Thoughts: It hasn’t set the low-water mark for Hump Day Fare Hacks by some distance, but don’t let that fool you – $278 for a transatlantic flight is not normal.

Hump Day Fare Hacks: September 7, 2016

This week, I’m introducing a new measurement called the “Norwegian Index.” Before you accuse me of turning a user-friendly blog into pure airline jargon, I should say that the Norwegian Index is simply the average of all Norwegian Air Shuttle flights profiled by Hump Day Fare Hacks in a given week. I think this is a solid way of seeing what an average “low-cost” (e.g. non-legacy carrier) transatlantic fare is at a given time, and, as such, will provide a basis of comparison for the cost progression or regression, depending on how the market behaves. And while a more comprehensive version would perhaps be weighted by the number of available days for each route, I simply don’t have the time or interest to take that on. If you’d like to undertake that task, be my guest – I’ll be sure that you get the appropriate recognition.

Norwegian Index for September 7, 2016 (measured in dollars): 294.0.

Just to be clear – this does not mean that I’ll be profiling more or less Norwegian flights in order to generate a more favorable Index. The average will be computed after I choose the deals to be profiled in a given week, ensuring that the Index is calculated objectively.

Moving on – Lufthansa is the airline to watch this week, offering a range of flights for less than $510 on BOS-FRA, JFK-MUC, and EWR-MUC. The German flag carrier usually charges significantly more on transatlantic flights, so this is something to take advantage of if you have the desire to travel to Bavaria or Hesse. Additionally, Hainan is offering exceptionally low fares on BOS-PEK for a number of September dates – prices which seem unthinkable at first glance given that the closest one is just six days away.  Two different countries; two carriers synonymous with quality; four great deals. Can’t beat it. (Maybe they can, but I don’t see it happening).

Note: All routes profiled are based on a 7-day round trip (departing and arriving the same day a week apart), unless otherwise noted. That said, I strongly encourage you to play with a variety of dates and trip lengths and see what you can find.

 

BOSTON

 

Boston – Beijing

Leave on:

  • September 13, 14, 21, 26, 27

Carrier: Hainan Airlines
Price: $638

Thoughts: It may well be too short of notice to plan a trip to China, but if you’ve got a week and $638 to burn, I can’t think of a better investment. I’m kidding, of course – however, the fact that this fare is available for a transpacific flight less than a week away is almost unthinkable.

 

Boston – Copenhagen

Leave on:

  • October 11 (return October 20)

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $305

Thoughts: Just one date left. Either way, an exceptional deal, even if not as cheap as BOS-OSL.

 

Boston – Frankfurt

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 11, 13-16, 18, 20-23, 25, 27-30
  • February (2017) 1, 3-6, 8, 10-13, 15, 16, 18-28
  • March (2017) 1-23, 27-31

Carrier: Lufthansa
Price: $507

Thoughts: If a $1 decrease wasn’t enough, the fact that the number of available dates drastically increased makes this deal a very attractive proposition. Anything transatlantic trip for less than $600 on Lufthansa is an exceptional fare.

 

Boston – London Gatwick

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 15, 16, 18, 20, 22, 23, 25, 27, 29, 30
  • February (2017) 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 13

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $330

Thoughts: A $3 increase with 2 more days of availability. Business as usual for Norwegian.

 

Boston – Oslo

Leave on:

  • September 30 (return October 8)
  • October 17, 21 (return October 25, 20)

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $269

Thoughts: This is the second week that this fare and these dates are available. If you haven’t bought your ticket already and you have even the slightest of desire to do so, you probably should.

 

NEW YORK

 

New York JFK and Newark – Amsterdam

Leave on:

  • December 6-20
  • January (2017) 11-31
  • Any date in February (2017)
  • Any date in March (2017)

Carriers: Delta Air Lines (JFK), KLM (JFK), United Airlines (EWR)
Price: $439

Thoughts: This smells of an over saturation of capacity in the market – one that could well be rectified in the coming months. Either way, this is a fantastic deal to take advantage of – personally, I’d recommend KLM and its Boeing 747 or 777 over the Delta 767 or United 757, but you can’t go wrong with this price and the extensive range of dates.

 

New York JFK and Newark – Munich

Leave on:

  • December 6, 7, 12, 13

Carriers: Lufthansa, United Airlines
Price: $505

Thoughts: A pretty exceptional fare for Munich, and made even better by the fact that you have the option between two airports and two carriers. I personally would choose Lufthansa over United, but that’s just me – you can’t go wrong with this price.

 

New York JFK – Oslo

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 15, 17, 19, 20, 22, 24, 26, 27, 31
  • February (2017) 2, 3, 5, 7, 21, 23
  • March (2017) 2

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $262

Thoughts: Don’t know how Norway in the winter is – I imagine it’s probably cold. What I do know, however, is that this is an exceptional price.

 

New York JFK – Paris

Leave on:

  • December 8
  • January (2017) 19, 24, 26, 31
  • February (2017) 28

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $328

Thoughts: $1 more than last week. Guess this isn’t a good deal anymore (sarcasm).

 

New York JFK – Stockholm

Leave on:

  • January (2017) 18, 20, 21, 23, 25, 27, 28
  • February (2017) 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 15, 22, 27

Carrier: Norwegian Air Shuttle
Price: $270

Thoughts: I’d be curious to see what flights between New York and Miami are going for during the winter. I bet this price would be competitive with those fares.